Inheriting Liberal Leadership

The best way to see through a leader, below the veneer of public relations, and under the camouflage of a branded family name, is how they respond to sudden and catastrophic circumstances - during moments that do not lend themselves well to scripts and teleprompters. Such was a moment for Justin Trudeau (aka Baby Trudeau) during an interview with the CBC’s Peter Mansbridge (a left wing interviewer setting a cozy stage for a left wing leader) in the wake of the Boston Marathon bombings.

That telling interview of the Liberal Party’s newly elected leader is reverberating through the political terrain fueled by incoherent remarks indicative of inadequate understanding and puerile interpretation of the dynamics involved.

The mark of a true leader is his ability to size up a dynamic situation, think fast on his feet, then articulate a coherent response. Baby Trudeau managed neither.

Baby Trudeau comes from a politically influential family in Canada; while I don’t particularly agree with most of his father’s policies, Pierre Trudeau was a popular leader and I don’t believe it is right to critique someone who has past-away. So for this article, I will stick to Baby Trudeau and his lack of knowledge when it comes to Canada’s culture, global issues, economic issues and understanding of the voter landscape.

It is a frightening state of affairs when someone like Justin Trudeau is even being considered for Prime Minister. There is no doubt in my mind that if this man was to become leader of Canada, it would spell doomsday for our economy.

The Sun stated, in respect to the radical and apparently arrogant Baby Trudeau:

[pullquote]“In November 2010, Trudeau told a Quebec television show that he was tired of Albertans running the country and that, whether it was Jean Chretien or Brian Mulroney, Canada is better off when Quebecers are running the country.”[/pullquote]

Canada is better off with Quebecers running the country? Oh Baby Trudeau, are you trying to divide our country? Dare I say, are you trying to separate our great nation? After all, should it not matter which province our Prime Minister is from? We are all Canadians.

If it wasn’t for Baby Trudeau’s last name, boyish charm, attractive wife and two adorable children, all of which have nothing to do with his leadership ability, I question whether he would even be known in Canadian politics. Every time he speaks about important issues concerning our great country, he sounds like a flower child with no real stance. However, the one thing he does possess is the charisma of a natural born politician. But is that enough? Not by a long shot.

The Road To Becoming Prime Minister

Will Trudeau make it as the next Canadian Prime Minister? According to Forum Research he could win a majority (click here for details).

Do I believe this to have any merit two years out from the next election? That depends on the fast-metamorphosing electorate. I mean after all, Barack Obama was elected not once, but twice as the President of the United States – and this man never had a real job prior to becoming President, so…

If Canadian voters are beguiled by the charm of a handsome, energetic young prince and are only interested in soundbites, just like many American voters, then yes, he could lead the Liberals to a slim victory. If, however, his façade is insufficient to distract from his gross inability to understand the political climate - a climate that reflects the ideological shift of the growing middle class, then the Grits are headed for further defeat.

Defeat Indeed

There are two fundamental reasons why Baby Trudeau will not be the next Prime Minister. The first is that his party’s message is no longer congruent with mainstream Canadian views. This chasm between the party and the populace will widen unless Mr Trudeau finds his voice - a voice the majority wants to hear.

The Liberals have some major reevaluation ahead of them as well as re-branding if there is to be any hope. The once natural ruling party has been cast into the shadows of irrelevancy only to be replaced by the Conservative Party’s ascendancy and NDP’s status as opposition for this very reason. Thus, to not clarify his party’s message will mean certain political doom. But what is the Liberal Party’s message nowadays? Do voters even know? Does the party even know? Better yet, does Baby Trudeau even know?

The Liberals are a lost and desperate party…

The second reason that precludes Baby Trudeau’s ascension is a matter of politics. There is a strategic issue at play behind the reasons why Trudeau is in an untenable position; both the ruling party (Conservatives) and the official opposition (NDP) find in the Liberals a true threat - a wild card.

Harper views Trudeau as a risk who could form an alliance with Mulcair, and Mulcair sees the same risk with Harper. So it will make most sense for them, Harper and Mulcair, to neutralize the wild card before battling each other. Trudeau may strike an alliance early, but to forge one now would be to do so from a position of weakness, which means he will not be in line to lead any coalition that may emerge from the alliance - obviating the Prime Ministership.

By standing in the middle of the political spectrum that grows increasingly polarized each year, the Liberal message from the center falls on deaf ears - or worse, vacant ones. Perhaps this is why the Liberals, and the public, don’t really know what stance the party is taking anymore. As such, these headwinds faced by Baby Trudeau are already steering him away from his party roots and into the seas of socialism – a political agenda that won’t fly in this country. Mr Harper, the current Prime Minister, is a brilliant politician and strategist and no doubt sees Justin Trudeau on the march, which is why he is already highlighting some of the anti-business anti-free market rhetoric spewed out of Trudeau’s inexperienced mouth. This guy is no friend of the entrepreneur and Harper has been quick to highlight his clumsiness.

A Tenable Solution

South of the border, in 1985, around the same time when Canada’s Liberals began loosing their governing foothold (Mulroney, a PC, was running Canada with great influence) a similar fate had been sweeping through the American plains. A young Arkansas Governor and a few other conservative Democrats decided to move from the left and somewhat embrace conservative values. The vehicle they drove on this journey was the Democratic Leadership Council and the main driver of its thrust was then future two-term President, Governor Bill Clinton.

It took a left leaning organization a concerted thrust to the right of center to be able to grab much of the conservative south. It was the right thing to do. Governing is not about archaic ideology and loyalty to vision statements. Governing is about striking a right chord with the people. Clinton had the smarts to see that, the intelligence to analyze it, the wisdom to craft a solution and the charm to pull it off.

Can Justin Trudeau accomplish the same? Highly unlikely. He is already leaning more left (economically) than the Liberals ever have. And his anti-Alberta comments will come back to haunt him surely. After all, don’t bite the hand that feeds half of Canada.

http://youtu.be/RBacLGvA7oo

Becoming An Inclusive Liberal

Baby Trudeau faces the same political deck that President Clinton did 30 years ago. If it wasn’t for the DLC, Clinton would have never been able to convince the country to elect a liberal to the White House. The same cards are being dealt here in Canada, but with Mr Trudeau sitting in for Mr Clinton. He needs to re-brand his centrist party to a point that takes on either the Conservatives, or the NDP first instead of doing battle with both simultaneously during the campaign period. And given some of his anti-Alberta comments, he will likely find a voice that resonates with the NDP base first.

Perhaps Baby Trudeau can take a page out of his father’s book: Pierre Trudeau had a good grasp over political rivalry and had the smarts to craft a plan and the charm to pull it off. The younger Trudeau obviously has the charm, but unlike his father is lacking the political wit to contrive a workable course for an archaic party living on past glories.

What is a man to do?

To become relevant, Trudeau needs to proactively seek an alliance at this point. He needs to expand the Liberal’s cause to include the cause of one or the other parties - most likely the NDP (although the NDP has a joke of a platform, I’m just talking strategy here because no Conservative in the right mind would form an alliance with Baby Trudeau). By expanding his ideology, he can expand his base without neglecting his current support structure. This would be the best use of his only present asset - his family name. This is exactly what Bill Clinton did in the US when he was dealt with the same cards. He expanded his base without neglecting his supporters. He became more inclusive.

If Trudeau sticks true to his party’s ideals and focuses on his party’s diminishing base, it will lead nowhere. The last election saw them in third place where they received the smallest percentage of the popular vote. Why? Because the issues people care about have changed from a decade ago to today. This is a new world. Manufacturing jobs have moved away. Agrarian jobs have been displaced. It has become cheaper to either move the plant or to bring in foreign workers. That has hurt the average Canadian. That needs to be addressed by Trudeau, if he is to be relevant. He has hinted at it, but nothing substantial has taken shape, further proving that he is insulated from full understanding of how an economy works.

Totally liberal policies are not working for the bulk of the citizenry where many have to work two jobs to remain barely afloat. The economy has grown, but middle class income has not kept up. When income levels are not what people think they should be, it begins to affect the way they cast their ballot.

Voters cast their ballot for the person they think will best fix their problems. It’s a “show-me-the-money” moment where everything a politician says is bench-marked against whether or not it will result in fixing voters’ own problems of working lesser than two jobs to keep the family afloat; allowing them to spend more time with the family; and, fixing that leaky roof. The problems are real and the first politician to recognize that and offer a fix - not the fix that will work - but the fix that the electorate thinks will work, will get their support. This may not be what we want to hear about the voter landscape, but it’s true. Sad, but true.

Stretching Across

Thus, Trudeau has two steps to take before the Liberals are even considered a serious contender. First, he needs to pick a message. To pick a message he needs to have an identity. To be politically savvy at this stage would be to find an identity that is inclusive. That would mean the identity of middle class values and policies that directly affect their prosperity. He needs to not only explain how incomes can increase under his policies, he needs to promise them a seat at the table of growing wealth.

And therein lies the reason why he will not be Prime Minister. It is because he won’t be able to do what Clinton did and pull his party to stretch across either side of center covering a larger swath of the population. He has the charm to do it, but he doesn’t appear to have the intellect to analyze the problem, and then provide the solution. His response to the Boston bombings clearly illustrates that the ability to analyze a situation accurately and speak to it - much less formulate a plan - is not in his arsenal. Harper, on the other hand, remains disciplined, strategic, and focused on the most important issue in the minds of Canadian voters: the economy.

Hint for Justin Trudeau… lose your socialist approach, beg Canadians to forgive you for your divisive comments, and then hand the leadership of your party over to Marc Garneau - the best leader in the Liberal party and only chance it has to resurrect itself. And one more thing Justin, a haircut would probably be a good idea too.

Stay hungry,

Aaron

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